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Operator Note. Written June 27, 2025.
Start at September 30. Walk backward.
That is the whole method. Most people plan summer from the front, hoping July will somehow turn out fine, and discover the damage in September. Do it in reverse and you know today what has to be true by when.
I need to be clear about one thing. Not every business slows down in summer. Mine might, yours might not. So step zero is to look at your own numbers. If your last year of weekly leads, calls held and cash collected shows a dip, plan for it. If it does not, skip this note and save the afternoon.
How do you work backward from a September target?
Write the target. Then convert it, one step at a time, into the activity that produces it. Here is the chain.
- Cash target for the month. What you want collected, not contracted.
- Average cash per client. What a typical client actually pays in the first stretch.
- Clients needed = cash target ÷ average cash per client.
- Close rate. The share of held calls that become clients. Calls held needed = clients ÷ close rate.
- Show rate. The share of booked calls that are held. Calls booked needed = calls held ÷ show rate.
- Booking rate. The share of leads who book. Leads needed = calls booked ÷ booking rate.
- Sales cycle. Subtract the days from first contact to payment. That gives the date leads must arrive.
An illustration, not data
Suppose, purely as arithmetic, that your September target is $60,000 in collected cash and the average client pays $4,000, so you need 15 clients. At a 25% close rate that is 60 calls held. At a 70% show rate it is about 86 calls booked. At a 20% booking rate it is about 430 leads. If your typical sale takes two weeks, those leads have to arrive by about mid-August.
Those numbers are invented to show the method. Replace every one with yours.
If you do not know a rate, that is the finding: track it for the next four weeks.
What does the math tell you about July and August?
Two things.
Your real deadline is earlier than you think
Because of the sales cycle, the "September problem" is decided in July and early August. If you wait until the last week of August to notice thin pipeline, there is no lever left that works in time.
The gap shows up in leads first
When the count of qualified leads this week is below the pace the math requires, you are behind now, even if cash looks fine. Cash is a lagging number. That is why a small scorecard with leads, calls held and cash collected, reviewed weekly (the format is in The Weekly Scorecard), is worth more than a monthly report.
Which levers should you pull early?
Not all of them are about spending more.
Re-work what you already have
- Old leads and past conversations. People who said not now in spring may be ready in the fall. Reach out with a clear, honest reason to talk, not a generic blast.
- Booked but unheld calls. Reschedule the no-shows with a personal message.
- Open proposals. Give each one a next action and a date.
Keep the machine warm
- Nurture through the slow weeks. A short, useful email every week keeps you present when people return.
- Keep ads running at a measured level if your lead cost and quality hold. Check cost per qualified lead and show rate, not only lead volume.
- Protect follow up (the cadence is in Build the Follow-Up Before You Buy the Traffic). Vacations happen. Make sure leads still get a fast answer when you are away.
Give people a reason to decide
A clear start date for your next cohort, a limited intake or a genuine deadline helps buyers who would otherwise drift. Keep it real. A fake deadline damages trust faster than a slow month hurts revenue.
| Planning from the front | Planning from September |
|---|---|
| Hope July is fine | Know the leads needed by a date |
| Discover the gap in late August | See the gap in the first week of July |
| Cut or boost spend by feel | Adjust spend against the required pipeline |
| Panic discounts at the end | Calm outreach and nurture early |
How do you check progress without drowning in data?
Use checkpoints. The discovery-driven planning article in Harvard Business Review makes the case that planning for uncertainty, with milestones and checks, keeps losses in new territory smaller.1 Your version is simple: set a few dated checkpoints.
Three checkpoints for July and August
- First week of July: are qualified leads at the pace the math needs? If not, add effort now.
- Mid July: are calls held and proposals open on track? Fix the leak: show rate, follow up speed or booking.
- Early August: do you have the pipeline that can still convert before September? If not, decide what you will do about the gap, with eyes open.
Celebrate the small wins
One more reason to keep the weekly scorecard. Teresa Amabile and Steven Kramer wrote in Harvard Business Review that helping people take a step forward every day and see their own progress is how to motivate people to do creative work.2 A slow season is a mental test as well as a financial one. Logging small, real wins keeps you steady.
A slow month you saw coming is a plan. A slow month you did not is a crisis. The only difference is when you did the math.
What if the math says you are short?
Then you know the size of the gap, which is the best news a gap can give you. You can decide whether to push harder on outreach, tighten the offer, spend more on ads within the limits your numbers set, or accept a lighter month and plan cash accordingly, using the runway math in Default Alive. A lumpy month is also a good reminder to build a cushion that is not just this season's pipeline, and the investing and retirement section is where I think about that.
In my own solo business, the weeks I regret are the ones where I looked away from the numbers and hoped. Hope is not a pipeline.
Turning numbers into a clear plan for ads, pages and follow-up is what I do.
Keep building.Ekai
Questions people ask
How do I plan for a summer sales slump?
Start with the cash you want to collect in September, then work backward through average deal size, close rate, show rate, booking rate and your sales cycle to find the leads and calls you need in June and July.
Does every business have a summer slump?
No. Check your own data first. Look at your leads, calls held and cash collected by week for the last year or two. Plan for the pattern you actually see, not the one you assume.
Should I cut ad spend in the summer?
Not automatically. If lead cost rises and quality falls, trimming makes sense. If your pipeline is thin, cutting spend now means a thin September. Decide from your numbers.
What is the sales cycle and why does it matter here?
It is the time from first contact to payment. If it takes about two weeks, leads that arrive in mid-August may not turn into September cash. Work backward by the cycle length to find your real deadline.
Sources
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